As the share of non-fossil energy gradually increases, the consumption-side energy use needs to be more flexible. The connection between energy supply and demand will become more intimate, posing higher requirements for enhancing energy consumption elasticity, intelligence, and self-supply capabilities. Currently, China's consumption-side energy sector still faces institutional and systemic constraints. It is necessary to drive transformation through the consumption structure of major energy-consuming industries, strengthen the coordinated transformation of energy consumption and production, and adopt a multi-pronged approach to guide a green and low-carbon transformation of energy consumption through policy measures.
Energy Consumption Trends Under the New Energy System
Energy consumption is increasingly electrified and intelligent. Electrification is a crucial approach to promoting the adjustment of the energy structure and the transformation towards green and low-carbon development. It supports the establishment of a new energy system and the construction of a new power system, and is an important measure to help achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. With the rapid development of digitalization and intelligence in the energy system, new power supply technologies such as smart microgrids, virtual power plants, comprehensive energy services, and energy big data centers have emerged. These new technologies and business models are primarily deployed on the consumption side, changing traditional energy supply and consumption patterns. Their commercial applications will effectively enhance the operation control, decision-making regulation, resource allocation, and risk early warning capabilities of the new power system, further enriching the application scenarios of electricity consumption and accelerating the substitution of electricity for terminal energy consumption.
Energy consumption patterns are becoming more complex. In the future, the trend of large-scale wind and solar power bases collaborating with distributed energy sources is inevitable. Under the new energy system, the energy channels on the consumption side are more diversified, including remote consumption from new energy large bases, as well as on-site consumption from roof-mounted photovoltaics, small-scale wind power, biomass energy generation, and new energy storage. The boundaries between energy consumers and producers will become blurred, and the flow of supply and demand will become more complex. On one hand, the load pressure on the distribution system increases, urgently requiring upgrades and the配套 of new energy storage facilities. On the other hand, the uncertainty in the prediction of energy consumption demand and timely consumption grows, posing challenges to energy system planning and operation and maintenance management.
Energy consumption and supply interactivity has been enhanced. With the high-quality development of the economy and society, the continuous improvement of people's living standards, and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather, the national electricity load has been rising year by year, displaying significant characteristics such as sharp peak values, large peak-valley differences, and double peaks in summer and winter. The stability of energy supply, mainly relying on renewable energy, is greatly affected by seasons and extreme weather. The energy system will inevitably face increased fluctuations and randomness in supply. The contradictions between over-supply and shortage caused by short-term spatial and temporal mismatches in energy supply will become more prominent. It is urgent to change the energy supply and demand regulation feedback model. Before long-term energy storage achieves commercial application, both ends of the supply and demand should make efforts in both directions. In addition to adjusting the power generation capacity on the energy supply side, the energy consumption side also needs to explore more flexible energy consumption methods. It should actively change its electricity consumption habits according to the seasonal and time characteristics of electricity supply and demand, as well as the tension of supply and demand, to improve the elasticity of energy consumption, actively adapt to the new energy supply model, respond quickly to dynamic changes in supply volume, and adjust consumption volume or source to restore supply and demand balance as soon as possible.
