Beijing time on Thursday (September 15), the US Dollar Index traded around 109.64 in the early Asian session. The US Dollar Index fell by 0.1% on Wednesday as the producer price index in the US continued to decline for two months in a row. The US Dollar weakened against the Japanese Yen after the Bank of Japan conducted a currency inquiry, possibly preparing for intervention in the foreign exchange market. Meanwhile, investors digested the US producer price data; gold prices fell below the key level of $1,700 per ounce, with expectations of a significant interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve reducing gold's appeal. Crude oil rose over 1.5%, and international energy watchdogs predict an increase in the shift from natural gas to oil for heating due to the high prices this winter.
This week, steel mills continued to resume production, with the daily output of pig iron reaching 23.6 million tons. After the profit compression of steel mills, production may start to level off. Coking coal prices have begun a second round of increase and decrease. Domestic coking coal supply remains relatively stable, and the import window for seaborne coking coal has opened. Downstream firms are procuring for刚性 demand, but there is a poor willingness to replenish stocks. This week, the arrival of iron ore at ports has risen, steel mills are replenishing stocks as needed, port throughput has recovered, and port inventory has decreased. The cost-performance of scrap steel has weakened, daily consumption has decreased, and prices have slightly increased. Amid growing concerns about resumption of production, there is long-term excess pressure in the supply and demand of raw materials, while short-term support comes from the reality.
The螺纹2301 contract rebounded as expected last night, at a key support level, primarily due to the surge of crude oil prices above the $90 mark in the context of gas-to-oil reform. The current pressure zone remains around 3784-3833, with support at 3718. Excluding market data fluctuations, the rebar prices still have further upward momentum. However, during the mid-month phase, attention should be given to price fluctuations and caution should be exercised in chasing more. The inventory data towards the end of the month will be a significant reference.
