Seamless steel tubes in the later stage will still face intense homogenization competition.

The China Iron and Steel Association believes that seamless steel pipes will still face fierce homogenization competition in the later period; at the same time, due to the increase in international commercial frictions, the growth rate of exports may gradually decline. It is estimated that the profitability of the steel industry in the second quarter will be better than that in the first quarter, but the degree of profit increase is unlikely to be substantial. End-users are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, and there is a strong bearish sentiment in the market. The market situation is not optimistic. There is not much inventory of market spot capital, and merchants' inventory pressure is not significant, with a cautious wait-and-see attitude prevailing. Looking at the current market situation, negative news is slowly being digested, and the downward price space is limited. Overall, the silver month of April will end, and the end-of-year market trend will be weak. Although the weather has warmed up, demand has not yet picked up, and the slow market situation makes merchants more confused. The contradiction between supply and demand for seamless steel pipes remains a major issue. The author believes that with the upcoming holidays, prices may slightly adjust at the beginning of the month, but the weak market atmosphere still cannot be contained. Prices in the later period are expected to decline more than rise, so merchants should pay more attention to price changes and the steel trade situation, and operate cautiously. In the first quarter of this year, key steel enterprises changed from profit to loss, with a negative profit of 23.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.04 billion yuan year-on-year. The first quarter of this year was the most difficult quarter for the steel industry since the new century. Zhang Changfu, Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Association, said that the current difficulties are not temporary but阶段性, and require adjustments of three to five years or even longer. Although the supply and demand relationship in the domestic steel market is severe, domestic steel companies have not significantly slowed down production. According to the investigation of my iron and steel network, as of April 25, 22 of the 154 operating blast furnaces in Tangshan had been under maintenance, with a total volume of 14,180 cubic meters, and the capacity utilization rate of seamless steel pipes reached 91.41%. According to historical data, the capacity utilization rate has been around 90% this year. Regarding the significant increase in crude steel production in mid-April, Shen Yibing, an analyst at Shanghai Steel Union and my iron and steel network, wrote an article indicating that it was mainly due to the low preliminary estimate of production by non-steel association member enterprises, which was corrected this week. Although the actual increase in crude steel production was not as large, the pressure on steel supply has indeed been increasing month by month. In the first quarter, steel consumption was in the off-season, but steel production still increased, and inventory rose sharply, making the situation of supply exceeding demand more severe, causing steel prices to continue to fall, and the entire industry was in a serious loss situation. Talking about the future industry situation, Zhang Changfu said that affected by seasonal factors and government micro-stimulative policies, starting from April, the demand for steel in China may increase. Considering that China will still maintain an economic growth rate of about 7.5%, the impact of investment on the economy cannot be ignored. Among the micro-stimulative policies, policies such as opening up private capital, increasing railway investment, and revitalizing shantytowns are highly related to the consumption of seamless steel pipes.

Liaocheng Steel Pipe