Seamless tube arrivals remain low, medium plate inventory is gradually decreasing to slightly below normal levels, and low stock is providing strong support to market prices. Moreover, there is currently a price inversion in mainstream markets like Shaogang and Liugang, with high arrival costs. The price advantage of northern resources is not significant, and agents are showing less willingness to reduce prices and sell. Short-term prices may continue to run平稳. In summary, without major negative news, the Guangzhou medium plate market is expected to remain stable in the short term. The mainstream is stable with average transactions. Raw materials are struggling to gain momentum, tube manufacturers are hesitant to arbitrarily increase prices, despite declining inventory, as the terminal's ability to accept high-level resources is insufficient; market sentiment is divided, with small-scale purchases dominating, and downstream recovery is slow, with demand taking time to pick up. It is anticipated that the market will remain mainly stable in the short term.
From market feedback, the spot market has said goodbye to a slight bottom bounce and has returned to a bearish decline pattern. It has been learned that second-tier steel mill resources have quietly moved towards the mainstream, but due to their low pricing, a large amount of resources have been retained in the low market area, making it difficult for steel prices to continue rebounding. Currently, the steel price structure shows a significant polarization, with scarce products often occupying the higher price range, with good trading conditions, but resources in the lower price range have shown some signs of slow sales. For the future market, the author believes that under the current circumstances, low steel prices will become the norm, with both the time and space for price increases being short and small. Therefore, from an operational perspective, it is not recommended for traders to blindly chase after price increases or panic sell, and they need to control inventory ratios reasonably. However, the recovery is slow, and overall trading has improved compared to earlier periods. Moreover, with the recent unchanged price policies of steel mills, it means that the cost of goods received is high, and under this influence, regardless of the narrow range fluctuations in the peripheral market, the price of seamless pipes remains stable. For future trends, most traders are cautious, believing that the price policy of Kunshan Steel in late March is not clear, and there is a strong sentiment of waiting and seeing, with prices remaining stable in the short term.