The market outlook is bleak, compounded by rising passive inventory levels, lukewarm downstream demand, tight funding, and other factors, leading to a further decline in steel prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, transaction volumes are dwindling, showing signs of weakness. Both intermediaries and end-users are waiting and watching, with the seamless steel tube market weakening. Post New Year's Day, the tightness in the funding market has somewhat eased, but the futures and electronic trading markets have plummeted sharply, sparking panic. Moreover, winter inventory is still insufficient, traders have a low desire to build up and stockpile, and the market lacks transaction support. In the short-term market, the author believes that attention should be paid to the following two aspects:

1. Steel price decline is slowing down. Since the latest downturn, hot rolled coil prices have not seen significant drops, while seamless steel tube prices have plummeted by nearly 250 yuan/ton in just one month. Based on current prices, they are approaching or surpassing last year's lows. Looking back to last week, although there was still a downward trend, it was much slower than before. Moreover, as the Spring Festival approaches, traders are not optimistic about improving transactions, and the momentum for shipping out goods is weakening. Most are focused on completing collection work, and there is little willingness to continue the downward trend.

2. Raw material costs are largely stable. In recent times, whether it's domestic or imported ore, despite the steel mills' cautious purchasing due to environmental protection pressures and slow transactions, the overall market remains stable. Meanwhile, there's a slight upward trend in the steel billet market, with spot prices slightly dipping but supported by tight resources, leading to favorable sales. Additionally, steel mills like Shagang and Hebei Steel have significantly dropped prices, which has caused some market panic but also spurred the intention of some steel traders to stock up for winter storage.

Currently, demand is weak, and rising inventory has determined that steel prices in January are unlikely to see significant improvement. However, after a sharp decline, the market has stabilized with increasing demand, and the market is expected to operate in a volatile consolidation phase in the short term. Looking at the ore processing manufacturers and traders, although market resources are tight recently, both ore processing manufacturers and traders are not doing well financially, so the suppliers' efforts to hold prices are relatively strong, and it is anticipated that the suppliers' price-holding efforts may increase in the later stage.