The steel market in the first half of 2022 experienced unprecedented conditions, driven by global monetary easing and domestic factors such as "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality," which spurred a significant surge in steel prices. The price of seamless steel tubes showed a substantial upward trend throughout the first half of the year, with the peak occurring in early May. By the end of June, the year-on-year price increase approached 40%. The supply and demand for seamless steel tubes this year were released earlier than in 2020, with supply peaking and then falling in the first half, and demand exhibiting a similar trend. Looking ahead to the second half, it is expected that both supply and demand will experience short-term fluctuations at low levels before gradually recovering, and the prices of seamless steel tubes in the second half are still worth looking forward to. 1. Review of the Seamless Steel Tube Market in the First Half of 2022 (1) Review of Price Trends in the First Half of 2022 The price trend of seamless steel tubes in the first half of the year showed a general upward trend with significant gains. In May, seamless steel tube prices experienced a sharp rise and fall in the shape of an inverted "V." By June, the prices had returned to a reasonable range. According to Mysteel's statistics, as of June 30th, the average domestic price of seamless steel tubes was 6149 yuan/ton, up by 980 yuan/ton from 5286 yuan/ton on January 1st, a year-on-year increase of 1672 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 37.3%. The highest price point for seamless steel tubes in the first half of the year occurred in early May, with an average price of 7012 yuan/ton. From the perspective of historical prices, unlike other more robust steel products, the price performance of seamless steel tubes was relatively weak, with the price peak in 2021 still having a significant gap from the peak in 2008. (2) Review of Fundamental Conditions in the First Half of 2022 Review of Supply Conditions Due to effective control of the domestic COVID-19 situation at the beginning of the year, the domestic economy recovered strongly, and domestic demand rapidly rebounded. On the other hand, seamless steel tube supply decreased early last year, and tube factories had low inventory at the beginning of this year. The mismatch between supply and demand led to rapid resumption of seamless steel tube factories, with capacity utilization and production reaching high levels in the post-Spring Festival week. Subsequently, as factory profits declined, the mismatch between supply and demand improved, and factory supply began to fluctuate and contract. By the middle of May, falling prices led to a sharp decline in orders, increasing inventory pressure on factories, and a rapid decline in supply. Mines and ore selection enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi, and Hebei had suspended operations, and the market supply of domestic ore resources was limited. With the overall iron ore market price already low domestically, affected by cost factors, the overall market price had a significant bottom support. Therefore, there was little likelihood of further price reductions by Liaocheng seamless thick-walled square tube factories. The market in the North China region remained stable with slight upward trends. The Tangshan market was driven by the rising price of imported ore, with some manufacturers increasing their iron ore quotations, but most steel companies maintained low-volume purchases. Only a few steel companies with tight inventory slightly increased their iron ore procurement prices, with limited impact on the overall market. The market trend of Liaocheng seamless thick-walled square tube factories was not obvious. The market in the Northeast was slightly active, with traders showing increased enthusiasm for seeking goods, mainly influenced by the rising trend in the surrounding market. However, most steel companies had good iron ore inventory conditions and were not eager to increase prices for procurement, so the upward trend in the local market was suspended. The market in the East China region showed slight upward trends. Liaocheng seamless thick-walled square tube factories frequently offered low-priced resources, and with the market sentiment in Liaocheng remaining pessimistic, it was expected that the mainstream trend today would continue to decline and adjust. The rapid decline in steel prices in domestic Liaocheng seamless thick-walled square tube factories was more pronounced than yesterday. With the continuous decline in futures prices and weak spot transactions, as well as further intensification of market pessimism, domestic steel prices have broken previous lows and reached new lows. The enthusiasm for intermediary operations has weakened, and downstream purchasers are only purchasing as needed, with overall transaction activity reaching a low point. The price of billets at 2100 yuan is not the end of this adjustment, and the continued downward adjustment operations for finished products such as rebars, high lines, hot-rolled coil, medium and heavy plates, and cold-rolled sheets will continue, with no bottom in sight. It is still recommended to operate the market cautiously. The predicted downward adjustment for medium and heavy plate manufacturers has reached 2350 yuan, and hot-rolled coil has reached 2650 yuan, and this bearish sentiment will further expand the space for continued decline in steel prices.