[H Cable Network]沪Aluminum fluctuated around the 10,000 yuan mark yesterday. Overnight, the international market dropped over 1% due to market declines. The price range for aluminum is relatively limited, having already touched the industry cost line, with little downward elasticity. Although there is an expectation of improved consumption in the long term, high inventory and the release of production suppress the rebound height. It is predicted that the short-term price will remain weakly volatile, and speculators should maintain a wait-and-see attitude.
Domestic commodity futures closed, with energy and chemical products sharply declining; asphalt's main contract halted; crude oil plunged over 8%, fuel oil dropped over 7%, eggs fell over 4%, soybean oil, palm oil, and Zhengzhou oil fell over 3%; only a few commodities like manganese silicate, coking coal, and rebar closed higher. In the domestic futures market, non-ferrous metals remained weak, with沪铝 following suit and struggling to rebound.
Industry News:
Recently, the Development and Reform Commission of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued its review opinion on the energy-saving report for the 300,000 tons of alumina project in the Shenhua Zhungeer Mining Area. The project is located in the Dalu Industrial Park of Zhungeer Banner, with a construction scale of processing 300,000 tons of fly ash annually, producing 125,000 tons of alumina as an intermediate product. This is used to produce 65,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, of which 32,357.4 tons are processed into general-purpose aluminum ingots, 22,520 tons into refined aluminum ingots, and 10,000 tons into high-purity aluminum ingots.
2. In 2019, China's aluminum industry continued to adhere to supply-side structural reform, strictly controlling the increase of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and strictly implementing the capacity replacement policy. The industry's production and operation trend was good, with significant improvement in the profitability of the smelting sector. However, prices continued to fluctuate and decline, and the pressure on the international trade situation intensified.
Tokyo, March 10 - Multiple industry sources reported on Tuesday that the first quarterly aluminum premium agreement between Japanese consumers and international traders for the April-June quarter has been finalized. The premium is set at $82 per ton above the LME spot settlement average price, CIF Japan. The buyer confirmed that the contract premium for Western grade metals is $82 per ton, with a monthly volume exceeding 500 tons. According to the buyer, the official quote is $75 per ton, which remains valid in negotiations with other suppliers. This agreement is 22% lower than the PACE Energy Information 2019 Q2 estimate of $105 per ton and also below the Q3 premium of $83 per ton.
Amidst overseas panic sentiment, the Shanghai aluminum market experienced a downward swing today. As of 3 PM, the main 2005 contract closed down 0.69% to 12,870, marking a 90-point decline from the previous trading day. While domestic downstream demand has recovered somewhat, it is expected to remain in a supply-exceeds-demand scenario in the short term, due to the influence of risk-averse sentiment. Additionally, the accumulation of social aluminum ingot inventory has far exceeded market expectations, continuing to suppress aluminum prices. Trend-wise, it is anticipated that aluminum prices will continue to oscillate weakly, with support levels to watch around 12,500-12,600. It is also expected that spot aluminum prices will fall tomorrow.
